The Met Office has issued a red warning for heat, and it's going to be very hot. The temperature could reach 37° in Southern England, and by Wednesday and Thursday, it could climb to 39° with a chance of going even higher. This is a big problem because it can make people very sick. The last time it was this hot was in July 2022, when the UK saw its hottest ever day on record, 40.3°. That brought unprecedented wildfires, failing infrastructure, and heat-related health impacts. This time, even though we may not reach that record temperature and recent rains mean wildfires may not be a problem, the risk to health certainly will be.
Keeping cool is a must given overnight temperatures are expected to be 20° across parts of England and Wales and humidity high. Humidity and overnight temperatures can be a big part in human health. If your body can't recover overnight, it can have big effects. If the temperature doesn't drop sufficiently for that, particularly if you're in vulnerable groups, if you're elderly or have got a pre-existing heart condition, or if you're very young or pregnant. So, all of those groups in particular need to pay attention to the advice. There's an uncanny coincidence this red warning coming on a major meteorological anniversary, 50 years since the heatwave of 1976. Scorched in the collective memory as a long hot summer, but one that brought melting tarmac, heat-related excess deaths, and widespread water shortages.
Academics from the University of Reading have predicted just how much hotter English summers will become in future and what a repeat of a 1976 event would look like in today's warmer climate. This week's red warning shows they're effectively bang on. We often talk about global temperature change of 1°, but it's important to realize that that 1° does not mean that our heat waves get just 1° hotter. They become 3 or 4° hotter in Southern England. And that may well come as a surprise to people, but it's what we're seeing now and what we're seeing in today's forecast. Forward wind 30 years in predictions would test the faith of even a dedicated sun worshiper. A 1976 style heat wave could bring several days of 40° heat with highs of 45. That's what summer currently looks like in Dubai. Our water, power, and transport infrastructure is struggling in current heat waves, as does the health of crops and the most vulnerable in society. The impact of future heat is almost unthinkable. I would worry about sounding alarmist if the predictions we'd had so far weren't so worryingly accurate.
